Tim Palmer


Atmospheric Physics
Clarendon Laboratory
Parks Road

Royal Society Research Professor in climate Physics and Professorial Fellow, Jesus College & Co-Director, Programme on Modelling and Predicting Climate Change

Tim Palmer’s research interests lie in the predictability and dynamics of weather and climate.

His theoretical work looks at aspects of the climate system which exhibit nonlinear behaviour, leading to a stochastic approach to climate prediction, rather than deterministic. His practical work looks at the application of weather and climate forecasts for malaria protection, flood forecasting and crop yield estimation.

Tim is Co-Director of the Programme on Modelling and Predicting Climate, a member of the Oxford Martin School.


Recent Relevant Publications: 

Palmer, T.N., 2012: Towards the probabilistic Earth-system simulator: a vision for the future of climate and weather prediction. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.1923

Palmer, T.N., 2011: A CERN for climate change, Physics World, Vol. 24, Issue. 3, 14-15

Palmer, T.N. and P. J. Hardaker, 2011: Handling uncertainty in science, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, vol. 369 no. 1956, 4681-4684, doi: 10.1098/rsta.2011.0280

Peter J. Webster, Jun Jian, Thomas M. Hopson, Carlos D. Hoyos, Paula A. Agudelo, Hai-Ru Chang, Judith A. Curry, Robert L. Grossman, Timothy N. Palmer, A. R. Subbiah, 2010: Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra Floods in Bangladesh. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1493–1514, doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS2911.1.

Doblas-Reyes, F.J., R. Hagedorn, T.N.Palmer, 2006: Developments in dynamical seasonal forecasting relevant to agricultural management. Climate Research, 33, 19-26

Palmer, T.N. and R. Hagedorn. 2006.  (Eds) Predictability of Weather and Climate. Cambridge University Press.

Thomson, M.C., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, S.J. Mason, R. Hagedorn, S.J. Connor, T.Phindela, A.P.Morse and T.N.Palmer, 2006: Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles. Nature, 439, 576- 579.

Palmer, T.N.. A. Alessandri, U. Anderson  and co-authors. 2004. The Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 85, 853-872.

Palmer, T.N., 2002: The Economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: from days to decades (The Royal Meteorlogical Society 2001 Symons Memorial Lecture). Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc. , 128, 747-774.