New Publication: using scenario models to estimate the impact of public health policy

Wednesday, October 1, 2014 - 11:45

The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

A new paper has been published this week by researchers in the British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches to Non-Communicable Disease Prevention, Nuffield Department of Population Health.

This paper describes the PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl) model, an openly available non-communicable disease (NCD) scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality.

The PRIME is currently being developed into a web application to be launched in 2015, as part of one of our Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food projects.

The paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets.

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