Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change

A modelling study

Authors: Marco Springmann, Daniel Mason D'Croz, Sherman Robinson, Tara Garnett, H Charles J Godfray, Douglas Gollin, Mike Rayner, Paola Ballon, Peter Scarborough


Library record


Citation: Springmann, Marco; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; and Scarborough, Peter. Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: A modelling study. The Lancet. Article in press. First published online on March 3, 2016.


One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050.


This study was made possible with support from the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food and the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) project. GFSF is funded by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).



Sign up to our Newsletter

Keep informed about our projects by signing up to our monthly newsletter:

Go to sign up page