Programme in Economic Modelling
Walton Well Road
Janine’s research focus includes inflation modelling and forecasting in a range of countries.
She works with Prof. John Muellbauer (Nuffield College and INET) and recently held a British Academy Research Development Award (BARDA) examining the impact of exchange rate volatility on domestic prices in South Africa, using both aggregate price indices and highly-disaggregated micro-data on consumer prices.
Of particular relevance to the food system is the work she is currently carrying out with the Institute for Economic Modelling (INET@Oxford), modelling food prices in Africa. She is interested in the determinants of inflation and in forecasting inflation, both crucial in monetary policy management by central banks. Food has a very large weight in the consumer price index in these countries, and hence is a core part of these models. She works closely with researchers in the South African Reserve Bank and the University of the Witwatersrand, and with a Senior Economist in the World Bank's Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, based in Uganda.
- Aron, J., Farrell, G. and J. Muellbauer. 2012. “Exchange Rate Pass-through to Aggregate Consumer Prices in South Africa.” CSAE Conference: “Economic Development in Africa.” 18-20 March, 2012, St Catherine's College, Oxford, UK.
- Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2012. “New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the USA.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (forthcoming).
- Aron, J, K. Creamer, J. Muellbauer and N. Rankin. 2012. “Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Micro-Data.” Special Section on Exchange Rate Pass-through, Journal of Development Studies (forthcoming).
- Aron, J., Farrell, G., Muellbauer, J. and Sinclair, P. 2012. “Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices, and Monetary Policy in South Africa.” Special Section on Exchange Rate Pass-through, Journal of Development Studies (forthcoming).
- Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2012. “Improving forecast accuracy in an emerging economy, South Africa, by means of changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation.” International Journal of Forecasting 28 (2), April–June: 456–476.
- Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and C. Pretorius. 2009. “A Stochastic Estimation Framework for Components of the South African Consumer Price Index.” South African Journal of Economics 77 (2), June: 282-313.
- Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2009. “Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in SA.” in Challenges for Monetary Policy-makers in Emerging Markets. South African Reserve Bank Conference Series 2008, Pretoria: South African Reserve Bank, August, 2009, pp. 163-188.
- Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2009. “Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa.” Chapter 15 in New Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets: Coping with the Challenges of Financial Globalization, Gill Hammond, Ravi Kanbur and Eswar Prasad (eds.), Bank of England/Edward Elgar, pp. 275-308.
- Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2007. “Inflation dynamics and trade openness.” Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), London, Discussion Paper 6346.
- Aron, Janine and John, Muellbauer. 2008. "The Next Collapse: U.S. Price Inflation." The Economists' Voice 5 (6), Article 9, September (http://www.bepress.com/ev/vol5/iss6/art9). Also collected in Special Issue, “Financial Regulation, Financial Crisis, and Bailouts”, The Economists' Voice 5 (5), edited by Joseph Stiglitz, Bradford Delong and Aaron Edlin.
- Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2004. “Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa.” South African Journal of Economics 72 (5): 1-30, December.