Janine Aron


Programme in Economic Modelling
Oxford-Man Institute
Eagle House
Eagle Works
Walton Well Road

James Martin Fellow, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School; Research Fellow, Centre for the Study of African Economies & Associate Member, Nuffield College

Janine’s research focus includes inflation modelling and forecasting in a range of countries.

She works with Prof. John Muellbauer (Nuffield College and INET) and recently held a British Academy Research Development Award (BARDA) examining the impact of exchange rate volatility on domestic prices in South Africa, using both aggregate price indices and highly-disaggregated micro-data on consumer prices.

Of particular relevance to the food system is the work she is currently carrying out with the Institute for Economic Modelling (INET@Oxford), modelling food prices in Africa. She is interested in the determinants of inflation and in forecasting inflation, both crucial in monetary policy management by central banks. Food has a very large weight in the consumer price index in these countries, and hence is a core part of these models. She works closely with researchers in the South African Reserve Bank and the University of the Witwatersrand, and with a Senior Economist in the World Bank's Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, based in Uganda.


Recent Relevant Publications: 
  1. Aron, J., Farrell, G. and J. Muellbauer. 2012. “Exchange Rate Pass-through to Aggregate Consumer Prices in South Africa.” CSAE Conference: “Economic Development in Africa.” 18-20 March, 2012, St Catherine's College, Oxford, UK.
  2. Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2012. “New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the USA.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (forthcoming).
  3. Aron, J, K. Creamer, J. Muellbauer and N. Rankin. 2012. “Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Micro-Data.”  Special Section on Exchange Rate Pass-through, Journal of Development Studies (forthcoming).
  4. Aron, J., Farrell, G., Muellbauer, J. and Sinclair, P. 2012. “Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices, and Monetary Policy in South Africa.” Special Section on Exchange Rate Pass-through, Journal of Development Studies (forthcoming).
  5. Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2012. “Improving forecast accuracy in an emerging economy, South Africa, by means of changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation.” International Journal of Forecasting  28 (2), April–June: 456–476.
  6. Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and C. Pretorius. 2009. “A Stochastic Estimation Framework for Components of the South African Consumer Price Index.” South African Journal of Economics 77 (2), June: 282-313.
  7. Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2009. “Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in SA.” in Challenges for Monetary Policy-makers in Emerging Markets. South African Reserve Bank Conference Series 2008, Pretoria: South African Reserve Bank, August, 2009, pp. 163-188.
  8. Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2009. “Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa.” Chapter 15 in New Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets: Coping with the Challenges of Financial Globalization, Gill Hammond, Ravi Kanbur and Eswar Prasad (eds.), Bank of England/Edward Elgar, pp. 275-308.
  9. Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2007. “Inflation dynamics and trade openness.” Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), London, Discussion Paper 6346.
  10. Aron, Janine and John, Muellbauer. 2008. "The Next Collapse: U.S. Price Inflation." The Economists' Voice 5 (6), Article 9, September (http://www.bepress.com/ev/vol5/iss6/art9). Also collected in Special Issue, “Financial Regulation, Financial Crisis, and Bailouts”, The Economists' Voice 5 (5), edited by Joseph Stiglitz, Bradford Delong and Aaron Edlin.
  11. Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2004. “Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa.” South African Journal of Economics 72 (5): 1-30, December.